Soooo... lots of safety procedures going on out there currently.
All I hear all day every day and everywhere I go is; "All this precaution is reasonable."
Lets think about that. (just for a few minutes.)
Is the response reasonable?
Its a calmly asked question.
Lets answer it, equally calmly.
Current total population of the US: approx 331,000,000
Total US covid cases as of yesterday: 122,653
Lets simply assume the reports are accurate and not debate that... You have a 6.34% chance of being one.
Total US covid deaths: 2112
Lets simply assume the reports are accurate and not debate that... There is a .017% chance you will die.
So that is just basic math some folks used to use to make decisions about this and that, and what we are all being asked to do out there is weigh probabilities and make choices based on those probabilities.
But that's not entirely accurate is it? Wouldn't be more accurate to say that "experts" are weighing these probabilities and making these choices on our behalf and telling us to just shut up and follow their example otherwise we may very well get punished, or EVEN DIE !
So maybe its not so much about thinking as much as it is a "no brainer", because the right thing to do is just so undeniably clear.
Why then am I entertaining doubts?
Lets, just for the sake of argument, try to quantify exactly what a .017 % probability is worth to you in a random situation and see if its enough to compel a change in your behavior shall we?
Would you say that a .017% chance of say, winning a hand of black jack was worth gambling the deed to your home on a single hand? I mean, we are not talking about risking your life here, just everything you own. By comparison, winning or losing here should not be a big deal at all really. If you lost you could, theoretically anyway, just start over and even play again. So why do you suppose more people don't gamble their real estate titles more often? Be honest now...
Does a .017% chance of winning justify abandoning all reasoning for everything you might normally do in favor of being a high roller for a few minutes, just to enjoy the experience of basking in the freedom of such wanton impulsiveness with no more concern than a small child might have about eating some glue?
Wait a minute.... Did I somehow just compare risking death from contracting covid to an idiotic compulsive gambling move?
Well, in a way, yes.
Why on Earth..? "What the hell is this guys point here?" you may be asking.
Well, first of all, in case you didn't know, the actual odds of getting 'blackjack' in a single hand is 31% if your first up card is an ace, so this entirely made up .017% chance of winning is artificially low and ridiculously poor. But I would 'bet' that you are wise enough (normally) to know that even if your chance of winning rose to a whopping 31% you still would probably not bet the farm on a whim. In fact, I bet you never actually bet your house and a 31% chance of victory probably would not change your gambling habits at all, regardless of what the pay off was, IF (and this is important), if you perceived the chance of winning to be negligible.
All this conjecture is just an example to illustrate logical and mature reasoning and behavior, but what happens to all that logic and reason if I mess with the example situation here, leaving the odds at 31%, but I swap a chance of winning with a chance of losing?
If instead I explained there was a 69% chance any player would lose the farm on a single hand of blackjack if he chose to gamble and, by way of my presentation, focused the players attention on the possibility of a negative outcome then, for some odd reason, right away he thinks "Ahh, this is RISKY ... best not to do it." The curious thing about this is that is just human nature. Even someone predisposed to gambling would tend to procrastinate a bit in this situation and think about the game more before deciding to play if they thought the decision to play along was more 'weighty' in some way.
What you just learned is a con man technique that was once referred to as SORCERY!
The use of such sorcery is best illustrated by a very short story called "A Buddhist's Tale", in which a man was sitting upon a retreat when he was passed one day by The God of Pestilence. The man asked The God of Pestilence where he was going, to which he replied nonchalantly, "I am going into town and there I will kill 100 people." On his way back The God of Pestilence again passed by the man, still sitting calmly upon his retreat, and the Man said to him, "You told me you were going to town to kill 100 people, but travelers told me that really 1000 people had died." The God of Pestilence said, "I only killed 100. The others were killed by their own fear."
Now think back to last month. Once upon a time in a galaxy far far away, before everyone was told every minute of every day the risk of doing what you normally do is so great they instead should avoid every other human in every way imaginable, because avoidance is of such paramount importance that your very life depends on it. And the volume and intensity of this message is just shameless. I mean, even the progression of inevitable death is used. It seems important to somebody that I believe that THIS is a horrible way to die. I hear this all the time. Oh, please... shut up! ...like anyone currently alive can tell you this with certainty. I don't care if they saw it happen all 55 times its not a first hand account and I personally can't muster up any fear of it honestly regardless of how many colorful embellishments are employed. Dying while on fire, or because a lion is literally eating you alive makes a demise via flu seem just lovely and preferable to those other two. How comforting that its more likely than the others. But even that is untrue haha. The chances of you dying on fire in the US are HALF that! Specifically they are 1 in 1,399. You are a tad more likely to die today choking on food than of covid (1 in 2618) AND GET THIS ALL YOU FITNESS JUNKIES... With odds of 1 in 4060, you are TWICE as likely to die today from a bicycling accident than covid!!!
My point here is DEATH NEVER CONCERNED YOU ALL THAT MUCH UNTIL A MONTH AGO! And you did basically nothing to mitigate a billion and one ways to die, but THIS ... This is different somehow and you must immediately give up your peace and happiness and even the most basic of human needs like social connections and [gasp] HUGS? Just as recently as last month it didn't seem to bother anyone that people die each day for all sorts of reasons, and from all sorts of diseases unless it was your mom or spouse or child doing the dying. In fact, the risk of dying most likely never crossed your mind before taking a walk, or a drive or running mundane day to day errands. You didn't think first about your own death when you did much of anything you did regularly. You simply went out into the world, led your life, and went home.
Maybe you thought about death before you climbed up onto your roof for the first time ever, or before that first bungee jump or maybe your wife thought about it more when YOU came home with a motorcycle during a brief mid life crisis. But if you are honest about it, anytime you thought about your own death it was usually connected to some new experience to you. But IF you did any of those things that's where the thrill came from, and feeling that thrill was THE REASON YOU DID IT! You know, its possible some of you reading this might fit the profile of a risk taker, because you like to drive way too fast, maybe you go skydiving regularly, or maybe you fantasize about being a test pilot or even an astronaut or a fire fighter. Remember a few years ago when lots of people dreamed of careers in firefighting? Try to think, just for a minute what doing something exciting meant to you personally.
Now think of that being denied you. AND NOT ONLY THAT, you must inflict this punishment upon yourself! Otherwise, you will most certainly be ostracized and shunned for your unconscionably selfish attitude towards others or your impossibly high degree of stupidity!
I am not speaking wisdom to you if you are 90+ years old and in fragile health nor does this covid thing really add much more risk to your already tentative existence so I don't want to hear anyone attempt to speciously shame me for a heartless disregard of my elders. I am talking to all the people driving this fear laced bullet train and to everyone suffering under such abuse.
Something might be making you happy to sit in a box at the moment, but its the same thing your parents used to warn you about when you were young and stupid. IT'S PEER PRESSURE! And you are 7 years old all over again except this time mummy and daddy are shit parents and actively encouraging you to jump off a bridge because your friends did it first.
Its a bit trite to quote a line from the Matrix Trilogy here but indulge me this once. Remember Morphius bellowing out that epic pep talk from the top of a rock in Zion, just hours before the machine apocalypse? That's been stuck in my head since that movie was new because it was every bit as moving as the St. Crispin's Day speech from Act 4 Scene 3 of Henry V.
I will never forget the last few lines that closed that earth quaking, rousing call to life. He said;
"I remember what matters most...
That after years of war... WE ARE STILL HERE!
AND WE ARE NOT AFRAID!!!"
All I hear all day every day and everywhere I go is; "All this precaution is reasonable."
Lets think about that. (just for a few minutes.)
Is the response reasonable?
Its a calmly asked question.
Lets answer it, equally calmly.
Current total population of the US: approx 331,000,000
Total US covid cases as of yesterday: 122,653
Lets simply assume the reports are accurate and not debate that... You have a 6.34% chance of being one.
Total US covid deaths: 2112
Lets simply assume the reports are accurate and not debate that... There is a .017% chance you will die.
So that is just basic math some folks used to use to make decisions about this and that, and what we are all being asked to do out there is weigh probabilities and make choices based on those probabilities.
But that's not entirely accurate is it? Wouldn't be more accurate to say that "experts" are weighing these probabilities and making these choices on our behalf and telling us to just shut up and follow their example otherwise we may very well get punished, or EVEN DIE !
So maybe its not so much about thinking as much as it is a "no brainer", because the right thing to do is just so undeniably clear.
Why then am I entertaining doubts?
Lets, just for the sake of argument, try to quantify exactly what a .017 % probability is worth to you in a random situation and see if its enough to compel a change in your behavior shall we?
Would you say that a .017% chance of say, winning a hand of black jack was worth gambling the deed to your home on a single hand? I mean, we are not talking about risking your life here, just everything you own. By comparison, winning or losing here should not be a big deal at all really. If you lost you could, theoretically anyway, just start over and even play again. So why do you suppose more people don't gamble their real estate titles more often? Be honest now...
Does a .017% chance of winning justify abandoning all reasoning for everything you might normally do in favor of being a high roller for a few minutes, just to enjoy the experience of basking in the freedom of such wanton impulsiveness with no more concern than a small child might have about eating some glue?
Wait a minute.... Did I somehow just compare risking death from contracting covid to an idiotic compulsive gambling move?
Well, in a way, yes.
Why on Earth..? "What the hell is this guys point here?" you may be asking.
Well, first of all, in case you didn't know, the actual odds of getting 'blackjack' in a single hand is 31% if your first up card is an ace, so this entirely made up .017% chance of winning is artificially low and ridiculously poor. But I would 'bet' that you are wise enough (normally) to know that even if your chance of winning rose to a whopping 31% you still would probably not bet the farm on a whim. In fact, I bet you never actually bet your house and a 31% chance of victory probably would not change your gambling habits at all, regardless of what the pay off was, IF (and this is important), if you perceived the chance of winning to be negligible.
All this conjecture is just an example to illustrate logical and mature reasoning and behavior, but what happens to all that logic and reason if I mess with the example situation here, leaving the odds at 31%, but I swap a chance of winning with a chance of losing?
If instead I explained there was a 69% chance any player would lose the farm on a single hand of blackjack if he chose to gamble and, by way of my presentation, focused the players attention on the possibility of a negative outcome then, for some odd reason, right away he thinks "Ahh, this is RISKY ... best not to do it." The curious thing about this is that is just human nature. Even someone predisposed to gambling would tend to procrastinate a bit in this situation and think about the game more before deciding to play if they thought the decision to play along was more 'weighty' in some way.
What you just learned is a con man technique that was once referred to as SORCERY!
The use of such sorcery is best illustrated by a very short story called "A Buddhist's Tale", in which a man was sitting upon a retreat when he was passed one day by The God of Pestilence. The man asked The God of Pestilence where he was going, to which he replied nonchalantly, "I am going into town and there I will kill 100 people." On his way back The God of Pestilence again passed by the man, still sitting calmly upon his retreat, and the Man said to him, "You told me you were going to town to kill 100 people, but travelers told me that really 1000 people had died." The God of Pestilence said, "I only killed 100. The others were killed by their own fear."
Now think back to last month. Once upon a time in a galaxy far far away, before everyone was told every minute of every day the risk of doing what you normally do is so great they instead should avoid every other human in every way imaginable, because avoidance is of such paramount importance that your very life depends on it. And the volume and intensity of this message is just shameless. I mean, even the progression of inevitable death is used. It seems important to somebody that I believe that THIS is a horrible way to die. I hear this all the time. Oh, please... shut up! ...like anyone currently alive can tell you this with certainty. I don't care if they saw it happen all 55 times its not a first hand account and I personally can't muster up any fear of it honestly regardless of how many colorful embellishments are employed. Dying while on fire, or because a lion is literally eating you alive makes a demise via flu seem just lovely and preferable to those other two. How comforting that its more likely than the others. But even that is untrue haha. The chances of you dying on fire in the US are HALF that! Specifically they are 1 in 1,399. You are a tad more likely to die today choking on food than of covid (1 in 2618) AND GET THIS ALL YOU FITNESS JUNKIES... With odds of 1 in 4060, you are TWICE as likely to die today from a bicycling accident than covid!!!
My point here is DEATH NEVER CONCERNED YOU ALL THAT MUCH UNTIL A MONTH AGO! And you did basically nothing to mitigate a billion and one ways to die, but THIS ... This is different somehow and you must immediately give up your peace and happiness and even the most basic of human needs like social connections and [gasp] HUGS? Just as recently as last month it didn't seem to bother anyone that people die each day for all sorts of reasons, and from all sorts of diseases unless it was your mom or spouse or child doing the dying. In fact, the risk of dying most likely never crossed your mind before taking a walk, or a drive or running mundane day to day errands. You didn't think first about your own death when you did much of anything you did regularly. You simply went out into the world, led your life, and went home.
Maybe you thought about death before you climbed up onto your roof for the first time ever, or before that first bungee jump or maybe your wife thought about it more when YOU came home with a motorcycle during a brief mid life crisis. But if you are honest about it, anytime you thought about your own death it was usually connected to some new experience to you. But IF you did any of those things that's where the thrill came from, and feeling that thrill was THE REASON YOU DID IT! You know, its possible some of you reading this might fit the profile of a risk taker, because you like to drive way too fast, maybe you go skydiving regularly, or maybe you fantasize about being a test pilot or even an astronaut or a fire fighter. Remember a few years ago when lots of people dreamed of careers in firefighting? Try to think, just for a minute what doing something exciting meant to you personally.
Now think of that being denied you. AND NOT ONLY THAT, you must inflict this punishment upon yourself! Otherwise, you will most certainly be ostracized and shunned for your unconscionably selfish attitude towards others or your impossibly high degree of stupidity!
I am not speaking wisdom to you if you are 90+ years old and in fragile health nor does this covid thing really add much more risk to your already tentative existence so I don't want to hear anyone attempt to speciously shame me for a heartless disregard of my elders. I am talking to all the people driving this fear laced bullet train and to everyone suffering under such abuse.
Something might be making you happy to sit in a box at the moment, but its the same thing your parents used to warn you about when you were young and stupid. IT'S PEER PRESSURE! And you are 7 years old all over again except this time mummy and daddy are shit parents and actively encouraging you to jump off a bridge because your friends did it first.
Its a bit trite to quote a line from the Matrix Trilogy here but indulge me this once. Remember Morphius bellowing out that epic pep talk from the top of a rock in Zion, just hours before the machine apocalypse? That's been stuck in my head since that movie was new because it was every bit as moving as the St. Crispin's Day speech from Act 4 Scene 3 of Henry V.
I will never forget the last few lines that closed that earth quaking, rousing call to life. He said;
"I remember what matters most...
That after years of war... WE ARE STILL HERE!
AND WE ARE NOT AFRAID!!!"
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